The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals are in the books. The Indiana Pacers stole Game 1 by way of a go-ahead Tyrese Haliburton jumper in the final seconds, taking their first and only lead of the game with 0.3 remaining. In Game 2 on Sunday night, the Oklahoma City Thunder roared back with a vengeance, sprinting out to an early lead they refused to relinquish like they did in Game 1.
While the first game was far more competitive than the second, both contests featured entertaining, high-level basketball. It’s still early days, though; the opening set of games in any playoff series serves as a feeling-out period for the two sides. They serve as a blueprint for how the rest of the series will play out. What worked in Game 1 and Game 2 informs offensive and defensive strategy for Game 3 and beyond.
Of course, adjustments were made between Games 1 and 2. The coaches of the series weren’t sitting on their haunches waiting for tip. But Game 3 is when the adjustments are made, more dramatic changes than fans are accustomed to seeing as coaches try to push their team to the promised land—or desperately stave off an opponent to fight another day. The Pacers and Thunder will both have spent these last few days crunching numbers and grinding tape to find those changes.
As the NBA Finals moves to Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, here are two adjustments each team should make for Game 3 and beyond.
Indiana PacersGet creative in finding ways to keep Tyrese Haliburton aggressive
Haliburton can suffer from an affliction many gifted passers struggle with in the NBA: the desire to help others find their shot instead of hunting for his own. Haliburton’s cerebral play and outstanding court vision mean he can make any pass at any time—and he knows it, too. It’s one of the best traits a point guard can have, and the Pacers collectively are surely glad for it.
But at times, it can work against Haliburton and his team. There are moments where he look to score, whether it’s because his team needs a scoring punch or just to keep the defense honest. Haliburton’s biggest and arguably only significant flaw as a point guard is that he’s slow to recognize those moments. In some games, his plan for multiple quarters is to drive into the paint, jump and look for a teammate to kick out to without a single glance toward the basket. This tendency sunk Indiana in Game 2 and played a big role in why the Pacers fell down by so much in Game 1. It feels especially important to correct because there is a direct correlation between how many shots Haliburton gets up and how often the Pacers win.
During the regular season, Indiana went 24–9 in games where Haliburton attempted 15 shots or more. It’s a trend that carried over into postseason play, with the Pacers currently 8–1 in games Haliburton got up 15 or more shots. Their other four losses came with Haliburton finishing short of that mark. And it isn’t too complicated to understand why, either. The All-Star point guard is a talented scorer, and when he is looking to shoot the ball, the passing lanes open up even wider. Defenders are forced to defend the rim when Haliburton gets into the paint, not lurk the passing lanes.
However, it isn’t that simple against OKC. Mark Daigneault’s defense is talented and disciplined enough to key in on the Pacers’ favorite actions involving Haliburton and shut them down completely without sacrificing elsewhere. Indiana tried running high pick-and-roll with Haliburton to no avail; the dribble handoffs with Haliburton grabbing the ball at full speed didn’t work, either. The Thunder defended those actions perfectly in Game 2 and only once Rick Carlisle dove deeper into his playbook did Haliburton spring free, scoring 12 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter.
Haliburton needs to start forcing the issue and shoot the ball more. Keeping things unpredictable is critical against a defense like OKC’s. But the Pacers need to find more ways to create the space Haliburton needs to do that in the first place.
Whatever other changes and adjustments the Pacers make as the series goes on, they just aren’t going to win three of the next five games if they continue to turn the ball over at this rate. The Thunder have forced 40 turnovers over the first two games of the NBA Finals, and they’ve done so in a variety of ways. They’ve picked the pockets of Indy’s ballhandlers from behind as they drive into the paint. They hound the Pacers as they walk up the court and poke the ball loose. Half of the forays into the paint from Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner are met with several OKC defenders ready to leap and swat any shot attempt. It’s honestly been remarkable to watch this elite defense force the ball loose as often as they do without compromising themselves.
It also seems utterly miserable for Pacers ballhandlers. Still, they have to find a way to limit their turnovers.
Which is easier said than done, of course. Their opponent forced a total of 1,396 turnovers this season, the most by any team in over a decade, according to Stathead. Turnovers aren’t just a side effect of the Thunder’s overall defensive prowess, they are a feature. Opposing offenses must stay disciplined every second of the game, because if their attention wanes for even a moment, OKC will pounce. This is one of the few teams where just being more careful with the ball doesn’t lead to the desired results; the Thunder will force turnovers no matter what.
Nevertheless, Indy has to be better. The Pacers are averaging 20 turnovers per game in the Finals after averaging 10.5 per contest in the regular season. That enormous change isn’t just because the Thunder are especially talented at forcing turnovers. The Pacers need to be more aware of lurking OKC defenders behind them as they drive the ball. They have to keep the ball high once they get into the paint to avoid digs from defenders sneaking in from the perimeter. Haliburton can’t leap into the air and hope a passing lane emerges.
Turnovers will happen. One must accept that when playing OKC. But turning the ball over on 20% of their possessions is not going to win the Pacers many more games.
Oklahoma City ThunderKeeping leaning on Isaiah Hartenstein
Hartenstein’s size and floor awareness gave the Thunder great versatility and flexibility from the moment he signed in OKC as a free agent last offseason. He can play center on his own surrounded by four wings and act as the defensive anchor. He can play alongside Chet Holmgren, taking the more physical assignment so his young teammate can roam the backend and clean up any mistakes. In a playoff setting, rebounding is Hartenstein’s chief skill. He can get picked on defensively as a slower-footed defender but is smart enough to know where he’s supposed to be, which along with the rebounding helps make him a net positive most of the time.
Daigneault, however, felt Hartenstein wasn’t a great matchup for the Pacers entering Game 1. Which was not a crazy line of thinking by any means. Indy loves to run and make split-second decisions, forcing the defense to scramble. What’s more, Haliburton is very good at picking on the weak link on a defense, which would be Hartenstein considering every other Thunder rotation player is good-to-great on the perimeter. Thus, Hartenstein played only 17 minutes in Game 1—and the Thunder were outrebounded 56–39. It’s no coincidence, either. Of the many positive traits OKC possesses, rebounding is not one of them.
The overall numbers are O.K.; the Thunder ranked 11th in the NBA in the regular season in rebounds per game and are currently ranked fifth among playoff teams in that category. But they ranked 23th during the season by giving up 11.6 offensive rebounds per game and have been even worse in the postseason, giving up 12.1 offensive rebounds per contest. In Game 1 of the Finals, OKC allowed 13 offensive rebounds by Indiana and it helped spell its doom, and as the top rebounder on the roster, Hartenstein’s absence felt related.
That hypothesis was proven correct in Game 2. The team at large put a much heavier emphasis on rebounding as a whole but Hartenstein, in 22 minutes, was a +17 and recorded eight rebounds. He cleared plenty of room underneath the basket for his teammates to swoop in when he boxed out. More importantly, Hartenstein held his own defensively. The Pacers still aren’t a great matchup for his particular skill set since they don’t have a post threat for him to be glued to. But as long as he isn’t hemorrhaging points, Hartenstein is a plus out there as the best rebounder on the team.
OKC is talented enough to dominate in most areas of the game against Indiana. But rebounding is one of those margins where the Pacers can seriously push the Thunder and tip the balance. Leaning more on Hartenstein is the Thunder’s best and only answer to their one glaring weakness as a roster.
Stay composed at the end of quarters
The Thunder let go of the rope in Game 1 in part because they struggled to successfully close out quarters. It is a hallmark of many championship teams to execute at the highest level in the last minutes of a frame, where momentum can reverse with a few quality possessions—or completely lost with clumsy, poor possessions. To open the NBA Finals, OKC was outscored by 10 combined points in the final two minutes of the third and fourth quarters. The end of the third allowed the Pacers to stay in the game, and obviously Indy’s surge to finish off the contest resulted in a stunning upset.
OKC managed to keep it together a bit more in Game 2. The Thunder outscored the Pacers by five in the last two minutes of the first quarter before battling to a draw in the last few minutes of the second quarter. OKC then outscored Indiana by one point in the third quarter before pulling away in the first half of the fourth, forcing Carlisle to bench his starters with four minutes to go.
Obviously those numbers are far from dominant, but it’s crucial the Thunder didn’t those minutes. They have proven capable of keeping the Pacers at an arm’s length after building a lead in the early and middle parts of the quarters. But in Game 1 Indiana got back into the contest and cut into leads because OKC lost composure in the last few minutes of quarters. The third quarter of Game 2 is a good example of how quickly things can get out of hand; while the Thunder still came out ahead in point differential they missed three shots and committed two fouls in 120 seconds of game time. The Pacers couldn’t capitalize this time. Game 1 should still serve as a looming warning of what can happen if they hang around, though.
It’s not reasonable to expect the Thunder to dominate the ends of each and every quarter. Sometimes shots will fall, sometimes they won’t. But if the series continues to trend the way it has, with OKC building a quick and early lead that it has to maintain for the remaining 40 or so minutes, the Thunder must at least draw even with the Pacers to ensure momentum doesn’t snowball in Indiana’s favor.