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There are very few figures in English football virtually immune to criticism, but Gareth Southgate is certainly one of them. How can you question a manager who transformed England from being the biggest embarrassments of Euro 2016 to the semi-final-reaching dark horses of the 2018 World Cup? How can you point the finger at someone who has made an entire nation fall in love with international football again, after so many years of anger and apathy, creating revolutions both on the pitch and in the press?

And yet, Southgate is by no means impervious to questionable judgement. Over the course of the World Cup, England’s 3-4-2-1 system became a dogma, sticking with a system based on its prior accomplishments rather than its suitability to the challenges ahead. Croatia and Belgium both exposed that, as did Spain subsequently in the first match of the Nations League campaign.

In fairness to Southgate, after the 2-1 humbling at Wembley, he finally learned his lesson. It had become painfully clear that against teams capable of dominating the Three Lions for possession 3-4-2-1 quickly slid into 5-3-2, and memories of old England – pinned back in their own half, defending resiliently yet never breaking out or stringing more than a handful of passes together – rapidly emerged.

Since then, 4-3-3 has reigned supreme, undefeated against Croatia and Spain, inspiring an incredible three-goal first-half in Betis that was, without dispute, one of England’s greatest away performances in their recent history, perhaps one of the greatest ever.

Those performances have convinced Southgate that 4-3-3, or at the very least a flat back four, is England’s immediate future, to the extent that it has affected his selection policy. Amid the absence of Joe Gomez, doubts over the fitness of John Stones – who has since withdrawn from the squad – and an indifferent season for Harry Maguire, many expected Conor Coady, who has excelled as the centre-point sweeper of Wolves’ back three this season, to be called up for the Euro 2020 qualifiers against Czech Republic and Montenegro. Southgate, however, went on to explain…

“I can’t say anything other than positive things from what I’ve seen, but the system we’re playing at the moment, it’s difficult to map him into and how would he be as a centre back in a four. He’s playing as a sweeper in a back three, so it’s very different to how anybody else in the Premier League is playing. We’d been trying him in what even might be the only time he’s ever played centrally in a back four if we have him in. Yes, we could bring him in to train and have a look at that, but we wouldn’t really know enough.”

Once again though, Southgate could be missing a trick tactically here, and not just because Coady has been in exceptional form for Wolves this season. Compared to Maguire, Michael Keane and James Tarkowski – England’s centre-back cohort during this international break – Coady’s made more Premier League appearances, for a team that’s higher in the table and has a better defensive record. The way he’s stepped up to Premier League level after four consecutive campaigns in the Championship has been immaculate.

Of course, a significant portion of that form owes to Wolves’ system and Coady’s familiarity within it; Southgate is correct that there are no guarantees the 26-year-old can be quite as imperious or effective as part of a two-man central defensive partnership. And even if he can be, who would you pair him with to get the absolute best out of him? Placing Coady in a back four just obliges too many questions, without enough obvious answers. After all, these are competitive fixtures, albeit against largely uncompetitive opposition.

But in many ways, that’s precisely the point. Because Czech Republic and Montenegro will sit back and let England control the ball, England should be using a back three in these games, when 3-4-2-1 stays 3-4-2-1 rather than transgressing into something far more cautious, and Coady should be a key part of that.

Most fundamental is his ability to orchestrate a three-man defence, which he has done with aplomb at Molineux over the last two seasons, and the other key factor is his impressive range of passing – a skill that will be essential to slowly drawing opponents onto England to create spaces further forward, as we saw time and again at the World Cup.

Once again, it feels as though Southgate is making tactical decisions based on the past rather than what lays ahead and in two games where England victories already feel like foregone conclusions, that oversight could be damaging. The fact is, teams are well acquainted with trying to counter 4-3-3 – it has become the most common formation in the world over the last decade or so. 3-4-2-1 presents its own set of unique challenges, both offensively and defensively, and the World Cup proved most teams find those a lot tougher to deal with.

Of course, even if 4-3-3 eradicates some of the unpredictability in England’s game, the Three Lions should have enough firepower to overcome both of their opponents in the coming qualifiers, and looking at the bigger picture, that probably is the formation that offers the Three Lions a greater chance of success when they reach the summer’s Nations League semi-finals, once again coming up against top quality opposition. Perhaps these two games are simply opportunities to become even more acquainted with the system, almost super-charged friendlies.

But it’s Southgate’s hesitation to mix things up, only doing so when the evidence unanimously compels him to, that remains the recurring theme. Tactically, Coady could have played a key role for England during his international break. After the failure to shift from 3-4-2-1 harmed England so greatly in the latter stages of the World Cup, hopefully this occasion won’t prove quite as costly.