West Ham currently sit 14th in the Premier League, having secured four points in their past two games, drawing 0-0 with Everton and beating Newcastle 2-0.
These back-to-back clean sheets and points acquired have been hugely important to Julen Lopetegui, as his job appeared to be in danger before these results.
Last season, under David Moyes, West Ham averaged 40.5% possession, taking 11.8 shots per game, and conceding 17.2 shots per game. However, so far this term, Lopetegui’s side are averaging more possession (45.5%), taking more shots (13.6 per game), and conceding fewer (16.4 per game).
West Ham have improved in all of these metrics, getting slightly more control in games than they managed last time around, which was the aim of the club when parting ways with Moyes, and going down the route of hiring Lopetegui, a more possession-based coach. However, the results haven’t followed suit until recently.
The Hammers will face Arsenal at the London Stadium this weekend, looking to keep their third consecutive clean sheet, but it won’t be easy, as the Gunners look refreshed by the return of their captain, Martin Odegaard.
West Ham vs Arsenal history
In this same fixture at the London Stadium last season, West Ham were subject to a thrashing, losing 6-0 to Arsenal as they pursued the Premier League title. To rub salt into the wounds, former Hammers Declan Rice came up with a wonderful goal from distance.
However, the Hammers did manage to get the better of Arsenal at the Emirates last season, with a 2-0 victory, goals coming from Tomas Soucek and Konstantinos Mavropanos.
In the history of this fixture, Arsenal have won 73 times, West Ham have won on 37 occasions, and the match has ended in a draw on 41 occasions.
Now, prior to the Gunners defeating Nottingham Forest and Sporting recently, Lopetegui’s men might have been confident of getting a result.
That being said, the return of Odegaard has seen a spark of life for the Gunners and West Ham will have to manage him carefully. The Hammers should get chances themselves, though, courtesy of their very own version of the Norwegian, a player who Arsenal once pursued themselves.
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Lucas Paqueta vs Martin Odegaard
Back in 2022, it was reported that Arsenal were the leading contenders to sign Lucas Paqueta. In the same window, West Ham managed to tempt the Brazilian to the club, signing for £51m, a club record fee for the Hammers.
Paqueta has since gone on to make 98 appearances for the club so far, scoring 15 goals, providing 14 assists, and totalling 7,411 minutes.
Much like Odegaard, the “special” midfielder – as David Moyes described him – operates as a number 8 or number 10, looking to create for his side with moments of creative brilliance, taking the ball in tight spaces, and being a reference point for his teammates to bounce off of.
The 27-year-old works hard, is involved in the defensive phases of the game, and is an important part of the Hammers press, contesting duels and pressing as a striker at times, again, all similar to Odegaard’s role with Arsenal.
Goals
0.19
0.00
Assists
0.00
0.27
xG
0.22
0.14
xAG
0.13
0.18
Progressive Carries
0.80
3.04
Progressive Passes
5.60
9.29
Shots Total
1.31
1.64
Key Passes
1.40
3.04
Passes into Final Third
5.40
6.07
Shot-Creating Actions
3.30
5.00
Tackles + Interceptions
2.70
1.67
When comparing the metrics of the two midfielders so far this season, Odegaard comes out on top in eight of the 11 statistics analysed, with Paqueta only bettering the Norwegian in tackles + interceptions, goals, and xG generated per 90.
The creative numbers of Odegaard are much higher than Paqueta’s due to their roles in their respective teams. While the Brazilian is similar in playing style, West Ham do not hold as much possession as Arsenal, and therefore Paqueta averages fewer touches, and has less responsibility in build-up due to their lower level of control.
It is actually Paqueta who has the potential to hurt the Gunners most, due to their tactical system, and the exploitable factors of that set-up, being something the former Lyon man has the qualities to unlock.
How Paqueta can hurt Arsenal
Arsenal tend to set up in a 4-3-3 on paper, but Mikel Arteta’s side make plenty of rotations in possession in order to get their best players into dangerous areas and sustain pressure in the opposition half.
The way in which they do this is by inverting both of their full-backs alongside the lone defensive midfielder (Thomas Partey), creating a 2-3 base shape, configured of the two central defenders behind the three which comprises of inverted fullbacks and one defensive midfielder.
This allows the two other central midfielders, often Declan Rice and Martin Odegaard to push forwards into the half spaces. One of Arsenal’s best qualities is sustaining pressure on the opposition, and that is done via their counter press.
The five players mentioned above are brilliant in the moment of a turnover, converging on the ball as a unit to regain possession as quickly as possible inside their half.
West Ham can exploit this via Paqueta’s passing qualities, looking to find channel balls in behind where the wide defenders have inverted from and exploit the space left by their movements. It is important that Lopetegui’s star midfielder looks to make these passes instantly, whilst the Arsenal fullbacks remain out of position, as that is the moment they are most vulnerable.
Michail Antonio will also be key to this, as he is a strong and willing runner, who will keep the central defenders honest, causing them problems on the break and stretching the pitch for the Hammers.
West Ham will have to be at their best if they are to get anything against Arsenal, but this could well be their best route, and it comes at a good time, with Paqueta coming off the back of his best performance of the season against Newcastle on Monday night.
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